Jobless Rate Doubles; Fannie & Freddie Delinquencies Septuple

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Here is an update of a set of data that I've been paying attention to for the last year. It compares the unemployment rate (Blue Line), the U6 Broader Unemployment Rate (Purple Line, which includes the jobless, and the people working part-time for economic reasons) with the delinquency rate on Fannie Mae (Red Bar) and Freddie Mac (Green Bar) mortgage loans on single family homes.

The picture isn't pleasing---You can see that as broad unemployment rate increased from less than 10% to 17.5% (in October, 2009)---The delinquency rate on home loans for Fannie & Freddie (which are typically Prime Loans) have increased by almost 6 - 8 Fold!

Let me repeat that---In Late 2006 and Early 2007, the prime mortgages were delinquent at merely ~0.5%. Now Freddie Mac has a 3.33% Delinquency Rate (September, 2009) and Fannie has a Delinquency Rate of 4.45%.

People should remember that in 2007, the economy & markets started tanking because sub-prime mortgages started going delinquent... Granted, those loans were going bust a significantly higher rate than the Freddie & Fannie notes---but also remember that Freddie & Fannie loan out significantly more money than what was ever given out to sub-prime borrowers... I don't have the data, but I'd venture to say that in order-of-magnitude--these loan delinquencies could be as bad or worse than the sub-prime crises.

Unemployment Crisis is Causing Record Levels of Foreclosure Filings

According to a story on the Washington Post, the rate of home foreclosures in 2009 is expected to crest over 1.8 million (vs. 1.4 million in 2008). The main cause for the sharp uptick in foreclosure filings is not the continuation of the sub-prime crisis---but actually the sharp increase in unemployment rates.

As more and more borrowers are significantly underwater on their homes and have living pay-check to paycheck a prolonged bout of unemployment can really drive them to stop paying the bank and walk away from their home.

Citi launches mortgage program to help the unemployed

According to Marketwatch, Citibank has announced a plan that may help some of the recently unemployed cope with the loss of a paycheck by temporarily lowering their mortgage payment.

If you qualify, your mortgage payment may be as low as $500/month for 3 months while you look for a new job.

This comes on the heals of Citibank's February 12th announcement of a foreclosure moratorium.

Unemployment/Underemployment Rates vs Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Delinquency Rates

Given Barack Obama's Stimulus Package and efforts to curtail the amount of mortgage foreclosures that are occurring in the market place, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to compare the unemployment rate and underemployment (U6) rate in America with the mortgage delinquency rates that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are experiencing.

Looking at data for 2006 - 2008, you can see the impact of a vicious feedback cycle. As people get delinquent in their mortgages, banks and other investors have to write assets down and constrict credit, this feeds into the economic contraction which causes more companies to scale back on headcount and hours worked--causing increases in the unemployment rate and underemployment rate.


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In my opinion, as you look out into 2009 (and 2010) the economic contraction and credit crunch will continue to cost people their jobs--and this will cause an escalation in delinquent loans throughout 2009 and part of 2010---It will hit conforming loans, Alt-A loans, sub-prime and jumbo mortgages.

Expect Helicopter Ben to try and solve much of the problem by printing more money and trying to push long term rates near all-time lows.

Mortgage Insurance Unemployment

If you're concerned that the global economic events could lead to your eventual unemployment, you may want to look into purchasing Mortgage Insurance Unemployment---It's an insurance policy that temporarily pays your mortgage while you are unemployed and looking for work.

You can read up more on this mortgage insurance unemployment here at bankrate.com. But remember with any insurance policy be sure to get a few quotes before buying.